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Julio Rodriguez has been extensively thought of to be a prime three prospect in baseball based on many shops. Prospect Insider’s Jason A. Churchill has Rodriguez ranked as his No. Three prospect in baseball. Others, resembling The Athletic’s Keith Legislation (No 9), MLB Pipeline (No. 3) and Baseball America (No. 2) additionally grade Rodriguez within the firm of the elite.

As the results of the mixture of his prospect standing, and now having made the Seattle Mariners Opening Day roster, The 21-year-old is poised to be a critical contender for the American League Rookie of the Yr award.

Historical past Says

Wanting again on the final decade of the award, 15 of the 20 winners have been hitters, 4 had been pitchers, and one was Shohei Ohtani. Additionally, the winner has performed in at the very least 87 video games, and solely performed beneath 100 video games 3 times (excluding Kyle Lewis in 2020 the place he performed in 58 video games of the 60 recreation season).

In Mariners lore, Alvin Davis holds many Mariners rookie data. He has hit probably the most house runs as a rookie in M’s historical past with 27. He’s additionally considered one of solely three rookies to hit 20 or extra house runs. Davis is also the one rookie in franchise historical past to have over 100 RBI with 116.

Statistical Thresholds

There are additionally a couple of statistical margins the previous 15 place gamers to win Rookie of the Yr had in frequent. Solely twice has the winner didn’t hit 20 house runs, and a type of was Lewis in 2020, a shortened season. Moreover, there have solely been 3 times the winner didn’t have a WAR or higher based on Baseball Reference (once more, one was Lewis on a 60-game schedule).

Lastly, not one of many previous 15 place gamers to win ROY has had a batting common beneath .260. If Rodriguez had been to satisfy or exceed these benchmarks, one would assume he’d at the very least me within the combine. There’s nothing on his skilled resume or in his talent set to recommend any of that is remotely past Rodriguez’s current capability ranges.

The Odds

Rodriguez, together with Bobby Witt Jr., and Spencer Torkelson, at the moment sits as consensus favorites, per sportsbooks.



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